3/13
RNG -1.5 looks like the clear take here. This isn't one of those trap bets. RNG is one of the, if not the best team in the LPL, while RW are probably the worst (yes, worse than LGD). Yes, RW are playing a sub at the support role but this will not change much. RNG will simply dominate both games and I am not only taking them -1.5, but I would also try taking them in any DraftKings you might play tonight. As for the Snake v V5 game, it's much more of a toss up. Two teams that have shown signs of light, particularly in their top laners, but both teams have a very poor macro sense. With that being said, I am giving the edge to the team with the better jungler. SofM has been the bright spot of this pretty bad team, but with SofM and Flandre on comfort picks + V5 drafting rather poorly, I can see Snake stealing not only one game, but the entire series. Jinoo started strong but has failed to find comfort on a champion that gives his team the ability to play around him. On the other hand, I think SofM and Flandre will take care of Jinoo rather easily. Although this may look like two pretty bad teams squaring up, the games within the game will be fun to watch. Poor macro with talented individual players always calls for a blood bath.
Picks:
3 units to win 2.4 units: V5 kill first dragon map one @ -120 or 1.83
I expect SofM to try and shut down Jinoo early, no matter who he plays. This will allow Ben4 to control the bottom side of the jungle.
3 units to win 3 units: Two team parlay; Snake +1.5, RNG -1.5 @ EVEN or 2.0
1 unit to win 2.01 units: Two team parlay; Snake moneyline, RNG -1.5 @ +201 or 3.01
REVIEW:
RNG -1.5 was apparently the biggest trap! Lost game one to RW I'm not really sure what to make of it. After Snake won the series I was super confident in making money tonight. Really poor start to the week, but with LCK back tomorrow and LEC/LCS this weekend I know we will make it back.
Total: -.7u
3/14
First game is GRF v GenG. There is no value in this game whatsoever. Same weekly thing. Tarzan at captain in DraftKings (especially against Peanut), let the rest fill itself. Second game is far more interesting. SKT v KT is always a close match as they are rival organizations, and the public is forgetting what happened the last time these two teams squared off. Although it was 2-0 SKT, both games were long and could have flipped on a dime. The lines have drastically changed in terms of the spread. I think there is a lot of value to be played on KT +1.5, and their loss to Afreeca should not be what is focused on here. We saw what happened with BLG the other night in a rivalry match with WE: the game are always competitive. With that being said, KT play a much faster pace in the early game than SKT like to play, so there is also value for KT scoring first blood.
Picks:
2 units to win 2.1: KT first blood map one @ +105 or 2.05
1.5 units to win 2.9: Two team parlay; GRF -1.5, KT +1.5 @ +193 or 2.93
1 unit to win 1.65 units: KT +1.5 @ +165 or 2.65
REVIEW:
KT failed to secure first blood but were able to cover the handicap by losing 2-1 to SKT. As for the parlay, well, we all know what happened last night. The kings were dethroned by GenG in a shocking 2-0 loss. Lehends looked extremely off his game as did Tarzan and I really don't think Griffin look as comfortable on 9.4 as they did in 9.2.
Total-1.85 units
3/15
LPL:
Due to the lack of subs FPX have made this season, I am rolling with them to win the first series. Depending on who plays for EDG, this has the potential to be a snoozer. With that, EDG haven't played in a three game series since week two, and FPX have played two three-game series in a row. With FPX coming off of two different three map losses, they will be fired up for a win tonight especially if they are playing against some of EDG's subs. EDIT: EDG is starting their normal lineup against FPX, however I still have to give the edge to FPX due to the fact that this EDG lineup have only played on stage three times together this year. The second series is Invictus and Vici, which also has very little value. IG will easily take this series as they usually try against their rivals which spans across multiple esports. The handicap can be parlay'd with other games going on tonight.
LCK:
First series is Jin Air and Kingzone, and although Kingzone are the heavy favorites, I do see some value here, especially for parlays as well as Jin Air scoring first blood which they do so well despite their record. The meta plays so well to Deft's strengths and I would recommend playing him at the ADC role in DraftKings tonight. I predict KZ win 2-0 but expect least one of the games to be close. The second match, Damwon v Hanwha Life, offers much more value, and I have to say that seeing Damwon being as big of a favorite as they are really surprised me. Damwon have struggled to find consistency in their lineup, flopping between the Top/Jungle combination of Flame/Canyon and Nuguri/Punch. It's been difficult for them because Flame and Canyon offer a much better macro game, but cannot dominate early the way Nuguri and Punch do. On the other hand, Hanwha are a young team that are constantly improving, and I think the first H2H between these teams was a bit of a fluke. I think 9.4 plays to the advantage of the HLE bottom lane with Sangyoon either Vayne or Ashe and Key on a sustain tank Support. Although I think Nuclear is the better Carry, the constant swapping between BeryL and Hoit can cause a rift in the way Nuclear performs as we've seen recently. I have Hanwha taking this series 2-1 but can even see some 2-0 potential.
Picks:
3 units to win 4.05: Hanwha Life win series @ +135 or 2.35
2.7 units to win 2.4: Two team parlay; FPX win series, IG -1.5 @ -113 or 1.88
1 unit to win 1.5 units: Hanwha Life +1.5, FPX win series, Kingzone win map one @ +150 or 2.5
1 unit to win 1.55: FPX -1.5 @ +155 or 2.55
1 unit to win 1.2: Jin Air first blood map one @ +120 or 2.2
REVIEW:
LPL:
Although FPX lost game one in a very odd fashion, they were able to come back for the reverse sweep. EDG clearly have some internal issues going on and their macro play was blatantly worse besides their vision control in game one. Everyone was on EDG so glad we were able to beat the public here and score in two different parlays. Nothing to say about the IG game other than IG is no joke. People were questioning their ability to show up and play their best every week and I think they answered that by shutting everyone up, especially Vici who were nailed into the ground in 23 minutes in game one. IG -1.5 free pick
LCK:
Correctly predicted the entire series. Game one annihilation from Kingzone but decided to get a little risky with their draft on map two and put Rascal on Lucian. JAG did an entire lineup swap for map two and gave themselves a nice early lead but their macro sense is no where near that of a team like KZ and lost their lead through poor fights and weak vision control. Unfortunately, the second match was the only match of the day that didn't come through. Would have been a huge night if HLE could have finished the reverse sweep. Was really disappointed to see Sangyoon on Lucian in game one, would've liked to see a crit/late game ADC but they fought back in game two. It came down to who wanted playoffs more, and when Hanwha leaves Nuguri's Jayce open, Damwon is obviously going to make them pay the price. Poor drafting from Hanwha is what the match came down to. Also picked some really poor fights on map one where I felt as if they could have taken the match.
Total: -1.1 units
3/15 LATE:
As we head into the last week of the LEC, there are some extremely notable matchups, including a popcorn game that should not be touched for wagers, but can definitely be a play in DraftKings. I don't want to talk about each game, so I will talk about the games I have touched.
Origen v Schalke:
I love Origen here, I think they have put together an extremely impressive season and on the other side is a team who started out boiling hot and severely cooled down as the season went on and we were able to see who they truly were. As someone who really likes Schalke as an organization, it is hard for me to play against them, especially with odds like +150, but I think it will be a slow paced game and Origen will slowly but surely pile it on in a 35 minute game with major help from Kold and Patrik.
SK v Rogue:
I think this game has the potential to be a lot closer than it looks, but at the end of the day it comes down to the team with the better macro, and that is SK behind their coach Brokenshard. Selfmade has put together a marvelous season and I would imagine it continues against the weakest team in the LEC this week. I can see this game ending much earlier than the first, but I can also see the action pick up early and expect to see the action often as well.
SPLYCE v Misfits:
I am personally extremely excited for this matchup. I love SPLYCE, especially their bottom lane. Norskeren and Kobbe have deep champion pools in a meta that is bottom lane focused. However, they are also a team that enjoys to drag games out and play the scaling compositions, and if there's anything we know about Misfits, it's that they love to do the exact opposite. Misfits will bring the action coming off of an 0-2 week as they make the push for playoffs. Although SPLYCE are the better team, I can definitely see this being the Friday slate upset.
FNATIC v G2:
Definition of a popcorn game. Enjoy two of the best orgs in Europe fight it out on Summoner's Rift. G2 have not looked their best recently and FNATIC definitely have, so I would lean towards FNATIC in this matchup, but I will be avoiding it entirely.
Picks:
2.5 units to win 2.4: Two team parlay: Origen ML, SK Gaming ML @ -104 or 1.96
1 unit to win 1.2: Misfits ML @ +120 or 2.2
REVIEW:
Predicted the Misfits game to perfection: Knew they would dominate the early game, but their aggressiveness ended up becoming their downfall as Splyce were able to catch the Misfits solo laners. Misfits need serious changes in order to be successful this summer but until then, I will refrain from wagering on this team; too hit or miss. Origen and SK took care of their games rather easily. The biggest takeaway from these games other than the fact that the playoff race is super close, is that Schalke have done a complete 180 from their early split success. Their movement is slow around the map and it seems as if they are always a step behind. Origen look really clean and Kold is the backbone of this very quality team. Can see them making the semi finals and even giving a hard time to G2 but would see them losing to FNATIC.
Total: +1.4u
3/16:
LCK:
First match is Griffin vs Afreecs Freecs. Based on how both of these teams have performed recently, I wouldn't touch this game with a 10 foot pole. I think Griffin will get back on track against a unpredictable Afreecs side and take the series 2-0. The second match is Sandbox vs KT Rolster and I love the matchup. These two teams play a unique style for the LPL with fast paced early games. I think Sandbox win the series but there's no value in their line, and the chances of KT stealing a game are above 50% based on my observations. Small chance they win the series so I wouldn't touch the moneyline. Due to the aggressive early game from both sides, I was able to find a really great line that I will share in the picks section. I also predict over 2.5 maps. At the end of the day the bottom lane combo for Sandbox will prevail over KT in a 2-1 victory.
LPL:
The first match is personally the most anticipated for me. Victory Five is coming off a bad loss to Snake, and Jinoo continues to struggle finding a champion that helps V5 succeed consistently. On the other hand, WE had a monstrous win over Bilibili earlier in the week which kicked off the week of upsets. WE have more convincing wins over better teams but in less convincing ways. V5 have the ability to dismantle worse teams with better mechanics, and I think the solo lane/jungle combination on the V5 side will make up for the fact that the WE bottom lane is better than the V5 bottom lane in the current meta. A lot of value within this game as I think V5 has the ability to 2-0 an overconfident WE team coming off of a big win. The second match is Topsports vs Rogue Warriors and although RW knocked off RNG in incredible fashion, TOP have been able to bury the bad teams with more impressive map awareness and superior vision. If this series doesn't end 2-0 at the hands of Knight9, I will be shocked. Lastly, JD Gaming vs Suning Gaming is the final match. This match will be more exciting than any of the others, because both teams have flourished at times, but also have been unimpressive at other times. JD Gaming started the week with much better odds than what they're at now, which is always something to consider. JD Gaming has been heavily overvalued all year for a team that is built of great players with average macro play. The starting lineup for SN has looked much better on 9.4. The value is there for SN who I have at 46% to win this matchup and 70% to win one game in the series.
Picks:
1 unit to win 2.3: V5 win 2-0 @ +230 or 3.3
1 unit to win 1.5: KT Rolster first to 10 kills map one @ +150 or 2.5
1 unit to win 2.4: Parlay: TOP -1.5, V5 win series, SN +1.5 @ +240 or 3.4
.5 units to win 1.8: KT Rolster +1.5, SN win series @ +360 or 4.6
LIVE: 1 unit to win 2.2: Afreeca win map three @ +220 or 3.2
REVIEW:
Really poor slate. Completely misread the strength of Corn and Ben4, and Jinoo struggles continued against Poss, a mid tier top laner in the LPL. I wrote about how Sandbox win 2-1 but didn't like it at +200 or 3.0 so I stayed away and played the handicap. I knew that WE bottom lane would give V5 a lot of problems, which they did. Predicted a lot of things to happen but weighted V5 victory the heaviest which was the downfall of the slate. The takeaway is WE have a real chance of making playoffs if they continue playing around their bottom lane on 9.4. TOP covered the handicap, as did Suning and KT Rolster. However, I thought Suning would come through in the third game considering how odd both teams' drafts were. Unfortunately, they lost to the better team that night and JDG were valued accordingly. I was able to take Afreeca live on map three @ +220 or 3.2. My reasoning was Tarzan played Olaf in game one and looked like a completely different person, and he was drafted again in game three. Mix that with Kiin on his comfort Akali pick and Sword intentionally feeding the entire series and we get an Afreeca upset and some money in the bank. Other than that pick, the slate was a flop.
Total: -1.3u
3/16 LATE:
LEC:
Last day of the regular season in the LEC, let's get right into it:
G2 vs Misfits:
Misfits' struggles continued yesterday as they fell hard to SPLYCE. They try so hard to assert themselves in the early game, but it ends up costing them in the end, especially with patient teams like SPLYCE. Misfits are +200 here against the one seed, and although G2 do not need to win, they have struggled as well, so I expect them to make their statement before heading into their bye week. I would also consider Jankos a must have in DraftKings at the jungle position. Based on the way Maxlore has played this split, I sense domination from one of the best junglers in EU.
SK Gaming vs Vitality:
The odds here really confused me, but they offer a ton of value on SK Gaming at +185 as they make their push into the top six. Vitality are coming off a poor loss to XL and have looked a lot weaker in the second half of the split. I think VIT ADC Attila and mid laner Jiizuke have not looked the same and of course, Jiizuke is not in a stable mental state (very unfortunate and I wish him the best). Anyway, SK need to win and Schalke must lose to Rogue in order for them to make the playoffs, and I will talk more about this in the next section.
Rogue vs Schalke 04:
If the stars are aligning for SK Gaming to make playoffs, it would be at the expense of Schalke. Schalke clearly have the easier game playing the last place team Rogue, but it is the last day of the regular season and anything can happen, especially with Schalke's current form. Upset and Abbedagge have looked exceptionally bad and Momento has hard a hard time figuring out which lane to play through. They take a plethora of careless fights with lacking vision and I think Rogue can really capitalize on this as the season closes.
LCS:
OpTic vs CLG:
First match of the day, OpTic have the clear advantage in this matchup assuming OpTic goes with Meteos and not Dardoch. If Dardoch plays, I am not entirely sure the matchup favors OpTic anymore. Nevertheless, I will take the odds. OpTic have found comfortability playing with their nine man roster between Academy and LCS, and although I favored OpTic to finish last in the standings this split, I now think CLG and their bottom lane struggles (Biofrost has been abismal) will place them in the bottom three this split with Echo Fox and 100 Thieves. With that being said, I am all over OpTic tomorrow in a nice two team parlay as well as on the moneyline straight up.
Clutch Gaming vs Team Liquid:
I love that Team Liquid have such favorable odds here because I have said from the start of the split, Clutch are not as bad as their record states. They play pretty opposite play styles: Liquid play through bottom lane and Clutch play through their solo laners, and I don't think Xmithie has an edge over LirA on patch 9.4. With that being said, at +425 or 5.25 I will be taking them to win 2.5 units.
FlyQuest vs 100Thieves:
This game will be a lot closer than it looks and will come down to who makes fewer mistakes. They both play through early game map control, but FlyQuest are much better at denying kills. If Santorin can lock down a jungler that has the capability to zone Bang out of fights, this should be a long, drawn out war of 40+ minutes that ends with the better team emerging victorious. FlyQuest are looking to shield off Golden Guardians and OpTic for the four spot in the standings. Even at -200 or 1.5 odds, the parlay potential is certainly there.
Picks:
4.5 units to win 2.5: OpTic moneyline @ -180 or 1.56
1 unit to win 2.45: Rogue moneyline @ +245 or 3.45
1 unit to win 2.9: Two team parlay: G2 moneyline, SK Gaming moneyline @ +290 or 3.9
1 unit to win 1.33: Two team parlay: FlyQuest moneyline, OpTic moneyline @ +133 or 2.33
.6 units to win 2.55: Clutch Gaming moneyline @ +425 or 5.25
LIVE: .5 units to win 4.15: Three team parlay: Echo Fox, TSM, FlyQuest @ +830 or 9.3
REVIEW:
LEC:
SK Gaming demolished Vitality today in a twenty minute onslaught. Unfortunately, I had them paired with G2 not even considering the fact that Mikyx won't play because they clinched the first seed. Really bit the bullet on that one. Rogue fell to Schalke even though they had the early and mid game advantage, bad teams just don't know how to close games. They were playing as if they were behind because that is all they are used to doing. LEC struggles continue, but feeling great as we head to playoffs. Looking at Origen to make the finals, either playing G2 or Fnatic. Could also see Splyce sleeper pick to make the finals, but it depends on their value.
LCS:
This recap hurts to write. OpTic were non existent today and CLG showed up. It took 20 minutes for OpTic to start making plays around the map and for Meteos to become useful, and Stixxay came back this week for Auto because it was Stixxay's birthday. Sometimes the littlest pieces of information can be the most important, and I missed that one today. Clutch were able to hold it together and targeted Doublelift in champion select, but he pulled the pocket pick Vayne out and outscales Clutch. Today I was able to catch some information on Twitter about Rush coming back for Echo Fox this week, and matching that with the fact that Echo Fox has yet to win on a Saturday this split and we have an upset for Cloud9. Sneaky also tried to play the Vayne but was unsuccessful in outscaling Fenix and his Azir pocket pick. TSM almost had a perfect game against Golden Guardians, and FlyQuest put together one of the quickest wins of the split verse 100Thieves. Those three teams for .5 units at 9.3 or +830 odds gave this slate life.
Total: -3.95u
3/17
LCK:
SKT T1 vs Hanwha Life:
Hanwha have the advantage in the bottom lane; Sangyoon and Key have been the backbone of this team all year. However, SKT has advantages in other places in the lineup. Whether it's Lava or Tempt, Faker will control the lane with the help of Clid. Khan is not reliable enough to say he has the clear advantage in the top lane, but his champion pool is strong for patch 9.5.
Gen.G vs Kingzone DragonX
Gen.G are looking to avoid relegation in a crucial matchup with Kingzone. I think the series will go to three games for a few reasons. First, Kingzone have stomped map one multiple times this season and came back with really interesting drafts for map two. I think Gen.G can punish this if it happens again tonight. Second, Gen.G have started to play around Ruler and it's actually working. The bottom lane matchup tonight will be a pleasure to watch. Lastly, I think Gen.G have established a game plan that can actually work in this meta. I would not be surprised if Gen.G win all of their games on 9.5.
Picks:
2.9 units to win 2: SKT -1.5 @ -145 or 1.69
1 unit to win 4.5: GenG 2 - 1 Kingzone @ +450 or 5.5
LIVE: 2 units to win 2.5: OMG win series @ +125 or 2.25
Total: -5.9u
